Published by on Tuesday, 27 Sep 2016
The UK’s retail sector is going to be a particularly sensitive indicator of the effects of the Brexit referendum decision. Retailers, whether they are store-based, online or both, are intermediaries at the end of the value chain - and as such are very close to both consumers and suppliers - so they’ll be at the receiving end of Brexit effects in other sectors ranging from agriculture to car production to financial services.
Any potentially negative impact would come at an already difficult time for retailers. Many are dealing with an already near ‘perfect storm’, including the impact of non-store channels, particularly mobile on large amounts of retail real estate; the threat of new entrants; increasing price competition, as well as challenging changes in consumer behaviour, including volatility in previous reliable sub-sectors such as clothing.
So far, any short term impact of the Brexit vote on spending levels has not been significant. Let’s look at consumers. Whilst we have seen enormous volatility in exchange rates and in share prices in vulnerable sectors (including some retailers) over the first few weeks following the referendum, these do not themselves drive buying behaviour in the short term, other than for lucky tourists. Many UK citizens will express their feelings about the consequences of the Brexit vote through their consumption behaviour over the forthcoming months and years, and in the light of critical events in the process (whether this be the triggering of Article 50, announcements by Japanese companies, or pontificating by Commissioners or Ministers.)
At least as far as spending is concerned; these feelings are unlikely to be positive, particularly in relation to spending on high value discretionary purchases, which will be deferred should confidence slip or prices increase.
Longer term, many consumers will become increasingly price sensitive. Inflation is likely to tick up through price increases as a result of exchange rate effects on import prices. Apple’s new iPhone and Watch products were marked up by between 15-20% from previous entry level prices on their introduction this autumn. The UK could be forced to default to the World Trade Organization tariff regime and other aspects of economic security turn negative. What does this mean? Well, certainly a boost to online price comparison services and e-commerce as consumers still wanting to spend shop around for the best deals.
What will retailers do longer term? The prospects for fast growth in European markets have never been very good. In the context of a declining domestic market, the biggest firms will look for higher growth opportunities elsewhere in the world. Equally, overseas entrants, although they might find entry or M&A costs a little lower, may well be deterred from UK openings. If anything, this will precipitate a readjustment of the cost base of many of the larger bricks and mortar retailers, with a faster closure of poorly performing real estate and a greater reliance on online platforms.
So does Brexit wreck the retail sector? Probably not, but it’s not going to help. In the absence of a crystal ball, nevertheless, the sector’s performance will be an extraordinarily interesting bellwether for the UK economy.
Dr Jonathan Reynolds
Academic Director, Oxford Institute of Retail Management
Jonathan works closely with Masters Programme Director Mike Parkes to continually develop the programme year on year.
Jonathan Reynolds’ new book, jointly authored with Dr Alan Treadgold is published by Oxford University Press. Entitled ‘Navigating the New Retail Landscape: a guide for business leaders’, the book describes the new landscape of retailing globally, and provides guidance on the skills and capabilities needed by retail enterprises and their leaders to achieve success.